The performances of the North African national football sides in
2011 have reflected the political actions of the Arab Spring
The failure of Egypt, the champions of the past three tournaments,
to qualify for the 2012 African Cup of Nations (ACN), alongside the absence of
regional heavyweights Cameroon and Nigeria, has thrown the tournament wide
open.
Egypt’s campaign in particular was a shambles, with defeats to
Sierra Leone, Niger and South Africa in the final qualification stage. But 2011
has not been an ordinary year in North Africa. With Egypt’s revolution
beginning on January 25 2011 and the Arab Spring in full flow, one could be
forgiven for thinking the instability in the country could not have helped its
football team, particularly given the continuing uncertainties moving into
2012.
However, the list of qualifiers for the African Cup of Nations has
thrown up a number of surprise names, not least Libya and Sudan, as well as
(less surprisingly) Tunisia and Morocco. While Tunisia were tournament winners
in 2004 after beating Morocco in the final, Sudan have made little impression
on the tournament since they won the competition in 1970. Libya has hardly ever
registered in African football consciousness, a runners-up spot in 1982
notwithstanding. Alongside Algeria (who just missed out of qualification), all
these nations have had significant upheavals and protests during the Arab
Spring and in the case of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, regime change.
The 2010 African Cup of Nations in Angola, won by Egypt. Source: me_studio
It seems implausible that national footballers can remain
unaffected by such political turmoil. With national football teams so often
projected as a symbol of the nation; and aggressively so in the case of some
North African states, could there be a link between the nature of political
action and performances on the football field? Is there a case to make that
powerful nations can be rocked by revolutions, but smaller and weaker nations
can be emboldened and united by them?
So how have these six North African nations fared since the outbreak
of their particular versions of the Arab Spring in the past year?
By collating the results from all matches (both competitive and
friendly) since the beginning of the Arab Spring political action in each
nation and comparing these results against performances from the previous 12
months (or at least eight games in the case of Morocco and Libya to ensure a
fair sample size), it seems abundantly clear that almost all of the North
African sides, with the dramatic exception of Egypt, have improved their
results in terms of average points per match (see table below).
Apart from Egypt, 2011 has been a fantastic year for North African football
Taken as a whole, these six nations have competed in 53 matches
since the start of the Arab Spring, gaining 87 points, with a 45% win ration
and an average of 1.64 points per match.
In the 12 months prior to the Arab Spring (or at least eight
matches stretching back into 2009 for Libya and Morocco), these same six
nations contested 60 matches, but only won 79 points, with only a 33% win ratio
and just 1.32 points per match.
Whilst a trend is clear, it is important to look at each country
more specifically.
Egypt appears to be the exception to the rule. The country was
arguably, up until 2011, the most successful team in African football during
the past decade with an unprecedented three straight ACN crowns, boasting seven
titles overall and have qualified for every tournament since 1982.
Although the Pharaohs had not begun their qualification campaign
well, in the 12 months between their 2010 African Cup of Nations victory and
the Egyptian revolution, they were boasting an average of 2 points per match
including five straight wins in January 2011. This is even discounting their
January 2010 ACN success, which featured 7 straight wins against high quality
opposition, and would raise their points per match to a phenomenal 2.39. Their
evident fall from grace has been staggering.
Since January 25 2011, Egypt have picked up one solitary win and
one draw from five matches, with defeats to South Africa and Sierra Leone
ensuring they finished bottom of their qualification group.
The Egyptian revolution was notable for the unity of the
population in throwing off the power of President Mubarak. Indeed there was
apparent cooperation in protest organisation between the fans of the rival
Egyptian teams Al-Ahly and Zamalek, with the latter long regarded as a
pro-government club during the Mubarak era. The only public backing to the
regime came from a few club managers and Egypt’s national coach Hassan Shehata
rather than fans or players.
While the other North African nations move towards new democratic
regimes or have gained significant concessions from government as a result of
their protests, the future for Egypt appears more convoluted and strained,
demonstrated by recent protests against the interim military rulers. The
ensuing instability of the post-Mubarak Egyptian nation has been echoed by poor
performance on the football field.
This however, is not the general trend. Morocco, Algeria, Sudan
and Tunisia have witnessed significant performance improvements since the Arab
Spring, while Libya has maintained its strength overall, but has improved
dramatically in competitive qualification matches.
“This is for all Libyans, for our revolution”.
So said 39-year old goalkeeper Samir Aboud upon Libya’s astonishing
qualification for the 2012 African Cup of Nations, after a draw against Zambia
put them though as a best runner-up.
For a team that was significantly affected by an ongoing civil
war, it was an astonishing achievement. Playing on neutral territory with a new
flag, strip and anthem, coach Marcos Paquetá summed the mood up by stating the
team was now "not only playing for football success but for a new
government and a new country”. Even more so when you consider Col Gaddafi's son,
Saadi, ran the Libyan Football Federation and was once captain of the national
team. The team had been a symbol of the regime.
It has certainly not been smooth sailing. Former star playmaker
Tariq Ibrahim al-Tayib was notably absent from recent matches, following
pro-Gaddafi outbursts including reference to dead rebels as dogs and rats.
During the conflict there were reports of 17 figures from Libyan football,
including four who claimed to be members of the national side, turning up in a
rebel-held town and announcing themselves as opponents of the regime.
One of them, Adel bin Issa, the coach of Tripoli’s top club
al-Ahly where Saadi Gaddafi used to play, announced he had come “to send a
message that Libya should be unified and free”, and he hoped “to wake up one
morning to find that Gaddafi is no longer there.”
The new Libyan side, made up from players from all parts of Libya,
has the potential to become a powerful new unifying force post-revolution.
Their performances thus far and qualification for the African Cup of Nations
may represent a good focus for new beginnings as the new nation moves into
2012.
The statistics show that Tunisia, Morocco, Sudan and Algeria have
all experienced far better results in 2011 since the beginning of their
respective protests or in the case of Tunisia, regime change, as compared to
the 12 months preceding the Arab Spring.
Algeria, where protests led to the lifting of a 19-year old state
of emergency, had a forgettable 2010, losing 8 matches and achieving an average
of 0.86 points per match. Yet in 2011 Algeria won three of five matches and
ended qualification on a high, only losing out to Morocco.
Even Morocco, which experienced smaller protests but significant
political concessions, saw their performances improve from 1.25 points per
match in 2010 to 1.75 in 2011 and finish top of their qualification group.
Sudan, in a year when the country has experienced protest,
violence and division with the breakaway of South Sudan, also qualified as a
best runner-up behind Ghana in their ACN qualification group. Having played a
large number of matches this year, a win ratio of 53% and a points per match of
1.79 is a huge improvement on 2010’s 25% win ratio and 1.13 points per match.
Finally Tunisia, the standout model of the Arab transition to
democracy, also saw an improvement in performance from 1.27 points per match in
2010 to 1.75 in 2011 and a comfortable qualification behind Botswana.
"The events at home really stimulated our team and we believe
that the players felt greatly liberated after what happened," (Esperance
coach Nabil Maaloul)
While the Tunisian national team were qualifying for international
competition, leading Tunisian side Esperance were winning the African Champions
League. Players were keen to invoke synergies between revolution and victory on
the pitch, with defender Khalil Chammam stating: "One positive thing from
the revolution was that, although we suffered a lot, those changes and the
suffering made us stronger -mentally and physically."
As in Egypt and Libya, Tunisian football suffered direct
interference politicians before the revolutions. It was no surprise that in all
three cases; national leagues were shut down upon the breakout of protests
against the regimes. The majority of Libya's squad was home-based, where league
football was suspended in March, while six others play in neighbouring Tunisia,
where the league has only recently resumed. It is impossible to separate the
fate of national footballers from politics when the impact is so great.
The paths of the North African national sides have not been
universally similar. Instead they have in fact tended to replicate the
upheavals themselves. Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have seen liberalising
efforts or regime change. It could be argued a new sense of liberalisation and
increased freedoms has been epitomised in the successes of these national
teams. Certainly in the case of Libya and Tunisia it appears that the political
changes have sparked a new found unity, inspiration and rallying call, factors
that have seeped through to the national football sides.
Whilst the link may be casual and the statistics do not delve any
deeper than top-line numbers, the North African national football teams seem to
be reflecting the mood and progress of Arab Spring and their successes are
symbolic of energised nations realising their potential. Only in Egypt has the
national side not been a flag bearer for success. Rather than being freed from
shackles, a powerful footballing nation appears to be more confused and unstable
than it was prior to the revolution. In football as in politics, confusion can
breed downfall.
Follow me @matthewlbarrett
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