The Arab football Spring

The performances of the North African national football sides in 2011 have reflected the political actions of the Arab Spring

The failure of Egypt, the champions of the past three tournaments, to qualify for the 2012 African Cup of Nations (ACN), alongside the absence of regional heavyweights Cameroon and Nigeria, has thrown the tournament wide open.

Egypt’s campaign in particular was a shambles, with defeats to Sierra Leone, Niger and South Africa in the final qualification stage. But 2011 has not been an ordinary year in North Africa. With Egypt’s revolution beginning on January 25 2011 and the Arab Spring in full flow, one could be forgiven for thinking the instability in the country could not have helped its football team, particularly given the continuing uncertainties moving into 2012.

However, the list of qualifiers for the African Cup of Nations has thrown up a number of surprise names, not least Libya and Sudan, as well as (less surprisingly) Tunisia and Morocco. While Tunisia were tournament winners in 2004 after beating Morocco in the final, Sudan have made little impression on the tournament since they won the competition in 1970. Libya has hardly ever registered in African football consciousness, a runners-up spot in 1982 notwithstanding. Alongside Algeria (who just missed out of qualification), all these nations have had significant upheavals and protests during the Arab Spring and in the case of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, regime change.

The 2010 African Cup of Nations in Angola, won by Egypt. Source: me_studio

It seems implausible that national footballers can remain unaffected by such political turmoil. With national football teams so often projected as a symbol of the nation; and aggressively so in the case of some North African states, could there be a link between the nature of political action and performances on the football field? Is there a case to make that powerful nations can be rocked by revolutions, but smaller and weaker nations can be emboldened and united by them?

So how have these six North African nations fared since the outbreak of their particular versions of the Arab Spring in the past year?

By collating the results from all matches (both competitive and friendly) since the beginning of the Arab Spring political action in each nation and comparing these results against performances from the previous 12 months (or at least eight games in the case of Morocco and Libya to ensure a fair sample size), it seems abundantly clear that almost all of the North African sides, with the dramatic exception of Egypt, have improved their results in terms of average points per match (see table below).

Apart from Egypt, 2011 has been a fantastic year for North African football

Taken as a whole, these six nations have competed in 53 matches since the start of the Arab Spring, gaining 87 points, with a 45% win ration and an average of 1.64 points per match.

In the 12 months prior to the Arab Spring (or at least eight matches stretching back into 2009 for Libya and Morocco), these same six nations contested 60 matches, but only won 79 points, with only a 33% win ratio and just 1.32 points per match.

Whilst a trend is clear, it is important to look at each country more specifically.

Egypt appears to be the exception to the rule. The country was arguably, up until 2011, the most successful team in African football during the past decade with an unprecedented three straight ACN crowns, boasting seven titles overall and have qualified for every tournament since 1982.

Although the Pharaohs had not begun their qualification campaign well, in the 12 months between their 2010 African Cup of Nations victory and the Egyptian revolution, they were boasting an average of 2 points per match including five straight wins in January 2011. This is even discounting their January 2010 ACN success, which featured 7 straight wins against high quality opposition, and would raise their points per match to a phenomenal 2.39. Their evident fall from grace has been staggering.

Since January 25 2011, Egypt have picked up one solitary win and one draw from five matches, with defeats to South Africa and Sierra Leone ensuring they finished bottom of their qualification group.

The Egyptian revolution was notable for the unity of the population in throwing off the power of President Mubarak. Indeed there was apparent cooperation in protest organisation between the fans of the rival Egyptian teams Al-Ahly and Zamalek, with the latter long regarded as a pro-government club during the Mubarak era. The only public backing to the regime came from a few club managers and Egypt’s national coach Hassan Shehata rather than fans or players.

While the other North African nations move towards new democratic regimes or have gained significant concessions from government as a result of their protests, the future for Egypt appears more convoluted and strained, demonstrated by recent protests against the interim military rulers. The ensuing instability of the post-Mubarak Egyptian nation has been echoed by poor performance on the football field.

This however, is not the general trend. Morocco, Algeria, Sudan and Tunisia have witnessed significant performance improvements since the Arab Spring, while Libya has maintained its strength overall, but has improved dramatically in competitive qualification matches.

“This is for all Libyans, for our revolution”.

So said 39-year old goalkeeper Samir Aboud upon Libya’s astonishing qualification for the 2012 African Cup of Nations, after a draw against Zambia put them though as a best runner-up.

Libyans turn out in droves to watch their side play Mozambique in September. Source: Magharebia

 Despite a recent poor run of friendly results, the Libyans are unbeaten in competitive matches since the revolution against Col. Muammar Gaddafi, notching up two wins and two draws to round off a qualification campaign that saw them go unbeaten and concede only one goal.

For a team that was significantly affected by an ongoing civil war, it was an astonishing achievement. Playing on neutral territory with a new flag, strip and anthem, coach Marcos Paquetá summed the mood up by stating the team was now "not only playing for football success but for a new government and a new country”. Even more so when you consider Col Gaddafi's son, Saadi, ran the Libyan Football Federation and was once captain of the national team. The team had been a symbol of the regime.

It has certainly not been smooth sailing. Former star playmaker Tariq Ibrahim al-Tayib was notably absent from recent matches, following pro-Gaddafi outbursts including reference to dead rebels as dogs and rats. During the conflict there were reports of 17 figures from Libyan football, including four who claimed to be members of the national side, turning up in a rebel-held town and announcing themselves as opponents of the regime.

One of them, Adel bin Issa, the coach of Tripoli’s top club al-Ahly where Saadi Gaddafi used to play, announced he had come “to send a message that Libya should be unified and free”, and he hoped “to wake up one morning to find that Gaddafi is no longer there.”

The new Libyan side, made up from players from all parts of Libya, has the potential to become a powerful new unifying force post-revolution. Their performances thus far and qualification for the African Cup of Nations may represent a good focus for new beginnings as the new nation moves into 2012.

The statistics show that Tunisia, Morocco, Sudan and Algeria have all experienced far better results in 2011 since the beginning of their respective protests or in the case of Tunisia, regime change, as compared to the 12 months preceding the Arab Spring.

Algeria, where protests led to the lifting of a 19-year old state of emergency, had a forgettable 2010, losing 8 matches and achieving an average of 0.86 points per match. Yet in 2011 Algeria won three of five matches and ended qualification on a high, only losing out to Morocco.

Even Morocco, which experienced smaller protests but significant political concessions, saw their performances improve from 1.25 points per match in 2010 to 1.75 in 2011 and finish top of their qualification group.

Kenya v Sudan. Source: Advocacy Project

Sudan, in a year when the country has experienced protest, violence and division with the breakaway of South Sudan, also qualified as a best runner-up behind Ghana in their ACN qualification group. Having played a large number of matches this year, a win ratio of 53% and a points per match of 1.79 is a huge improvement on 2010’s 25% win ratio and 1.13 points per match.

Finally Tunisia, the standout model of the Arab transition to democracy, also saw an improvement in performance from 1.27 points per match in 2010 to 1.75 in 2011 and a comfortable qualification behind Botswana.

"The events at home really stimulated our team and we believe that the players felt greatly liberated after what happened," (Esperance coach Nabil Maaloul)

While the Tunisian national team were qualifying for international competition, leading Tunisian side Esperance were winning the African Champions League. Players were keen to invoke synergies between revolution and victory on the pitch, with defender Khalil Chammam stating: "One positive thing from the revolution was that, although we suffered a lot, those changes and the suffering made us stronger -mentally and physically."

As in Egypt and Libya, Tunisian football suffered direct interference politicians before the revolutions. It was no surprise that in all three cases; national leagues were shut down upon the breakout of protests against the regimes. The majority of Libya's squad was home-based, where league football was suspended in March, while six others play in neighbouring Tunisia, where the league has only recently resumed. It is impossible to separate the fate of national footballers from politics when the impact is so great.

The paths of the North African national sides have not been universally similar. Instead they have in fact tended to replicate the upheavals themselves. Tunisia, Morocco and Algeria have seen liberalising efforts or regime change. It could be argued a new sense of liberalisation and increased freedoms has been epitomised in the successes of these national teams. Certainly in the case of Libya and Tunisia it appears that the political changes have sparked a new found unity, inspiration and rallying call, factors that have seeped through to the national football sides.

Whilst the link may be casual and the statistics do not delve any deeper than top-line numbers, the North African national football teams seem to be reflecting the mood and progress of Arab Spring and their successes are symbolic of energised nations realising their potential. Only in Egypt has the national side not been a flag bearer for success. Rather than being freed from shackles, a powerful footballing nation appears to be more confused and unstable than it was prior to the revolution. In football as in politics, confusion can breed downfall.

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Rory McIlroy deserving of SPOTY crown

22-year old World No.2 should beat the likes of Mo Farah and Mark Cavendish to the BBC award following a remarkable year for British golf

With the BBC Sports Personality of the Year to be announced on Thursday 22^nd December, the bookie’s favourite is Mark Cavendish, following his extraordinary performances in the Tour de France and becoming Britain's first male world road race champion since 1965. Despite this and the merits of all the nominated sportsmen, the award should go to Rory McIlroy.

It was completely unjust that the ten-man shortlist was literally ten men without any female representation. At the very least Andy Murray and Amir Khan will surely have more successful years to come when they reach the top of their sports, which would be in the form of Murray finally winning a Grand Slam and Khan not only winning back his now-relinquished light-welterweight world titles, but also stepping up to welterweight to defeat Floyd Mayweather. Keri-Anne Payne and Rebecca Adlington both had better 2011s and deserved recognition. Chrissie Wellington is a phenomenon, but would Alistair Brownlee then begin to have a similar case for inclusion?

Cavendish has taken British cycling to new levels. Source: Ride On

Nevertheless, the other eight candidates all warrant serious consideration. Andrew Strauss presided over an England Test side that humbled the Australians on their own turf in The Ashes for the first time in 24 years, before setting about the ruthless 4-0 dismantling of India, the previous occupiers of the world no.1 spot which now belongs to England. Alastair Cook was the undoubted star of the victory over the Australians, although if one was being overly cynical it could be suggested that he set about punishing a toothless Australia attack on flat pitches and was far less dominant against Sri Lanka and India. If you combined Cook’s runs with Strauss’s captaincy, you would have a strong case for a winner.

Cavendish has had an exceptional 2011, and is doing more than any other cyclist to make his sport appeal to the mainstream sporting public. Cycling has tended to disappear from view in non-Olympic years, but his performances in the Tour de France and world road race have captured the limelight. The only element that counts against him is the fact that he generally had to rely upon his selfless HTC teammates to ensure that he was in a position for success. It is often forgotten that cycling is far from an individual sport.

The athletes Mo Farah and Dai Greene are both World champions. Greene now holds titles at Commonwealth, European and World level, but few would rank him above Farah for his achievements, incredible as they are. Farah won the first long distance gold for a British male at a major global championship in an event long dominated by African competitors. This speaks for itself and puts him in strong contention for the award.

Farah's performances have been taken up a level in 2011. Source: Paul Foot

However, 2011 has been the year of British golf. Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy and Lee Westwood comprise the top three of the Official World Rankings, with Donald topping the money lists on both sides of the Atlantic after clinching the Race to Dubai last weekend, reflecting his consistency at the top of the game. Although Graeme McDowell got the ball rolling in 2010, McIlroy’s triumph at the U.S. Open and Darren Clarke’s fairytale victory at The Open at Royal St. George’s were truly momentous achievements. Some fantastic players never win one. Clarke’s maiden Major title and his emotional journey have unsurprisingly put him as the second favourite behind Cavendish for the crown.

Yet McIlroy has the edge for a number of reasons. His U.S. Open victory at the Congressional was by an astonishing 8 shots, breaking a host of scoring records in the process. Since 1931, only Tiger Woods has been a younger Major Champion, which is illustrious company. He has risen to no.2 in the World Rankings and is fast catching Luke Donald following breathtaking victories in Shanghai and Hong Kong. A late season charge for the Race to Dubai came up short, but a suspected case of dengue fever cannot have helped. All this at the age of 22.

McIlroy's 2011 included a U.S. Open victory and a rise to World No.2. Source: edbalaun

Beyond the incredible performances, he achieved all this despite his meltdown during the final round of the Masters in April. Standing on the 10^th tee of the final round, he was one shot clear and there was all to play for, but a woeful drive and triple-bogey seven marked the beginning of a nightmare close to his round that was agonising to watch. For some players the recovery from experiences such as that can be long and painful. Instead McIlroy gave an incredibly mature and sensible press conference and set about winning his very next Major. It says a lot about his personality and marks McIlroy out as a true champion.

Throw in a high-profile relationship with Caroline Wozniacki and it has been quite a 2011 for Rory McIlroy. There is no doubt that he would be a worthy winner of the BBC Sports Personality of the Year for his own outstanding achievements, the manner in which he has bounced back from a nightmare beginning to 2011 and as an ambassador for the supreme health of British golf. The outlook for 2012, where he should play a prominent role in the defence of the Ryder Cup in Chicago and challenge for more Major titles, looks promising.

1^st Rory McIlroy

2^nd Mo Farah

3^rd Mark Cavendish

Resilience of Hargreaves a source of inspiration

Owen Hargreaves' second start of the season for Manchester City, against Arsenal on Tuesday evening, produced a performance that was no more than workmanlike. It certainly did not yield anything like the stunning strike earlier this season against Birmingham in the Carling Cup that crowned his return to top-level football after three injury-plagued seasons. However one could argue the quality of his performances mattered little.

Whilst the opportunity to play for Manchester City is one hardly any footballers would turn down, few footballers have been through the horrendous injuries and presumable self-doubt Hargreaves has experienced since he first broke a leg in 2006.

Like his English contemporaries Ledley King and Jonathan Woodgate, Hargreaves deserves admiration for even stepping back on to the pitch. Released by Manchester United (who seemingly saw little chance of a return to his best form) and subsequently written off by the press and much of the public, few would have begrudged him an early retirement or resuming his career at a lower standard of football.

Hargreaves in action for former club Manchester United. Source: Super MF

Having won two Champions Leagues, four Bundesligas and a Premier League title, played for two of the greatest clubs in world football and earning 42 England caps in the process, he would have been fondly remembered as a world-class midfielder denied a full career by an injury curse. With no shortage of cash and plenty of honours, an early retirement might have brought him to coaching badges, punditry and plenty of golf.

Yet Hargreaves has thrown the script out of the window. The resilience he has shown in proving his fitness, taking the original and very public path of posting YouTube training videos, and then throwing himself into the pressure cauldron of Manchester City (where he is sure to see more regular action in the second half of the season) shows both character and courage. No club will see its players put under the media spotlight as much in the coming years as Manchester City, as they attempt to rise to European greatness. Not the easiest route back from the best part of four seasons of the last five wrecked by injuries.

Hargreaves YouTube videos were bold, but paid off. 

While suffering years of injuries, particularly those involving knees and tendonitis, Hargreaves must have continually questioned his body’s ability to stand up to top level football and the impact these or any future injuries could have later in life. One fears for the long-term damage done to the likes of Hargreaves or Ledley King, who cannot even train in between matches. Will they have any regrets in 15 years’ time?

Having incurred three years of chronic knee pain myself, deciding to stop playing competitive football, even at my lowly level, has been a tough process. Mentally I lost the confidence to play as I dwelled on my injury.  I no longer trust my body to come through the rigours of tackling and am reluctant to compromise my future health and mobility. And my injuries were certainly not on the scale of Hargreaves, King or Woodgate. These players have had plenty of time to reflect on the damage these injuries have had on their bodies, yet fight to resume their careers, albeit with the assistance of the best medical staff around.

Ledley King has also bounced back this season following injury nightmares. Source: TottenhamFan

Without his injury nightmares, one wonders how many more England caps Hargreaves could have won. He seems to be the piece of the England puzzle we have been missing for so long, industrious in defence and possessing quality dead ball skills and quality distribution (although the emergence of Scott Parker into Capello’s plans in the past 12 months may have partly provided a solution).

Were Owen Hargreaves to get back into England squad it would be a borderline miracle. He would surely settle for 10 appearances this season and to progress from there. I root for him and all other players suffering chronic or major injury who strive to return to the field of play. There is the sense that these are the footballers who no longer desire financial rewards, but to continue performing a job they not only love, but is also all they know.

My admiration is not just for Hargreaves’ footballing ability, but his desire to resume playing at the top level, despite the knowledge his body might break down again and the potential implications for his health later down the line.